Dec 24th, 2009
Cal barely has a winning record at 6-4, has dropped way out of the top 25 and just lost to Kansas by 15 points on Tuesday. And we have the gall to think things are looking up for the Bears.
Patrick Christopher seems to have his confidence back and that's big -- Associated Press photo by Greg Wahl-Stephens
Our reasoning, as misguided as it may seem, is based on several observations:
Point A: Patrick Christopher has regained his offensive confidence. You can tell because he’s taking his step-back jumpers without hesitation and without concern for the distance from the basket. Of course, it’s more significant that he’s making them with regularity. He scored 21 points against Kansas, his third straight game of 20 or more, while hitting 51.2 percent of his shots in that stretch. He looked unsure of himself against Syracuse and Ohio State and his numbers reflected it. When he’s scoring, the Bears seem to do everything better.
Point B: Cal’s four losses all have been to teams that are currently ranked — No. 1 Kansas, No. 5 Syracuse, No. 13 New Mexico and No. 17 Ohio State. Those four teams have a combined record of 45-2, and none of those four games was in Berkeley. There’s nothing to be embarrassed about there, and the Bears played Kansas virtually even for the first 30 minutes in Lawrence, Kansas, where the Jayhakws have won 49 straight, the longest home winning streak in the country.
Point C: Theo Robertson is back at full strength and shooting well. His importance to the team goes unnoticed until he is absent. His versatilty, smarts and outside shooting make the Bears a more complete team. Three of the Bears’ four losses came when Robertson was sidelined. He played in the loss to Kansas, but, as we noted, Cal played well in that game.
Point D: Cal has improved since the start of the season, which is not always easy to do with a team with so many returning starters. The Bears have played well their past three games, and the game against Kansas may have been their best performance of the season, despite the loss.
Point E: Kansas beat Cal by overwhelming the Bears in the paint with their big men. Kansas got the ball inside time after time, and the Bears simply had no way to deal with Kansas’ strong, skilled post players when they got the balll on the block. That will not be an issue in the Pac-10, which has virtually no big men who can score consistently. USC’s Alex Stepheson looks like one of the few big men in the conference who could take advantage of the Bears’ interior shortcomings.
Concerns remain for Cal, however:
Kansas shot 73.1 percent in the second half against Cal, and even with the Jayhawks’ obvious edge in the paint, Cal has to play better defense than that.
Jerome Randle was 3-for-15 with seven turnovers against Kansas, numbers reminsicent of his sophomore season when he was so inconsistent. He did not seem to be playing wrecklessly, though, and it may have been just an off game against a good defensive team.
Centers Max Zhang and Markuri Sanders-Frison have committed way too many fouls. They combined for seven fouls in 18 minutes against Kansas, forcing the Bears to go with their smaller lineup much of the game. The Bears are actually better when Robertson moves to the power-forward spot and Jamal Boykin plays center with three guards in the game, so Cal will use that lineup most of the time anyway. But Mike Montgomery would like to have some flexibility available to him. We here at jakestakeonsports still think Zhang can be a factor as a shot-blocker, but he can’t block shots from the bench.
All in all, though, Cal looks as good as anyone in the weak Pac-10 at the moment, and the Bears should be even better in a week or two.
