Mar 10th, 2010
The real gamblers – not the amateurs who claim they win every bet – say it’s foolhardy to wager on the men’s Pac-10 tournament. The conference has been unpredictable all season long, and there’s no reason to believe it will start making sense now.
One of the few certainties about the Pac-10 tournament is that it will be played at Staples Center in Los Angeles
Well, I am willing to offer anyone a wager: You pick a team to win it, any team at all, and I’ll take the other seven teams. Come on. Put your money down. We’re betting the field.
If we at JakesTakeOnSports had to pick a winner, it would probably be Cal, simply because it won the regular-season title and seems to be playing well at the moment. We would not put a bet on the Bears, however, partly because they have the least incentive. Cal will get into the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens at the Staples Center this weekend, and they are the only team that can say that.
Arizona State and Washington may be the most motivated because they still have a shot at an NCAA Tournament at-large berth if they perform well in the conference tournament, which starts Wednesday with the play-in game between Washington State and Oregon.
One win in the tournament may get the Sun Devils in, and the Huskies would probably need to get to Saturday’s championship game. Both would prefer to win the thing to avoid the anxiety.
The other six teams (USC is not participating) have no anxiety and no ambivalence. They know they have to win the Pac-10 tournament to get an NCAA Tournament berth. But they also know it’s possible, based on how the season has gone.
Incentive matters. Desperate teams play better. In the gambling vernacular, a sense of desperation is worth about 7 ½ points.
So let’s look at the teams and suggest why they could win the conference tournament and why they won’t:
CAL
Why they could win: The Bears feel like they are the best team, and that helps. So does the fact that they won their last four games and seven of their last eight. No one is playing better now, and all the key players have played in the conference tournament several times, so they know what it takes. Cal wouldn’t play Oregon State until the title game, and the Beavers are the one team that gives Cal fits because of style of play and matchups.
Why they won’t win: Cal is the only team without added incentive. The Bears are in the NCAA Tournament, no matter what. It’s not certain whether Jorge Gutierrez (ankle) will play. He provides energy off the bench and needed depth, two commodities needed in a conference tournament .
ARIZONA STATE
Why they could win: The Sun Devils have won six of their past seven games, and they will be fueled by the knowledge that they are on the borderline of making it into the NCAA Tournament. Eric Boateng has played pretty well lately, and nobody in the Pac-10 has a big man who can handle him.
Why they won’t win: The Sun Devils don’t really have a big scorer, and teams that win the conference tournament often ride a hot player. The one player who might fit that description, Ty Abbott, has not been productive lately. Teams like ASU that rely so heavily on defense have trouble winning three consecutive games.
WASHINGTON
Why they could win it: The Huskies have two standout players who can score a bunch of points – Quincy Pondexter and Isaiah Thomas – and the Huskies could ride either one to a few wins. No team is quicker or more athletic and they are capable on going on an offensive binge. hey are 9-2 over their last 11 games. Plus, the Huskies realize they need to win a couple games in the Pac-10 tournament to reach the NCAA.
Why they won’t: Washington has been great some games, but mediocre others, and inconsistent teams have trouble winning three consecutive games.
ARIZONA
Why they could win it: The Wildcats have won three straight, and young teams like the Wildcats feed off momentum. They seem to be getting better and could find their groove at any time. They beat each of the top three teams during the season, so they know they can do it. They beat first-round opponent UCLA twice this season.
Why they won’t: Having so many freshmen is also a disadvantage. They may have trouble playing consistently well on three consecutive days. They seemed to be player better a month ago than they are now.
UCLA
Why they could win it: Ben Howland knows how to get his team to perform in these situations. Freshman Tyler Honeycutt has progressed over the latter part of the season and is capable of emerging in the conference tournament.
Why they won’t: The Bruins come into the tournament on a three-game losing streak, and they lost twice to first-round opponent Arizona.
OREGON STATE
Why they could win it: Oregon’s State’s style and defense can be frustrating to opponents, especially if fatigue sets in, which is likely to happen in a conference tournament. They beat Cal this season, which shows they are dangerous.
Why they won’t: The Beavers don’t have much offensive punch, and winning three games in a row on defense alone is quite difficult. They lost twice to first-round opponent Washington.
STANFORD
Why they could win it: The Cardinal was in just about every game this year, and nearly beat Kentucky, so it knows it can do it. Landry Fields is the best player in the conference, and if Jeremy Green is hitting his threes, the Cardinal can get on a roll.
Why they won’t: With so little depth, Stanford has to play its key players a lot of minutes, and that will take its toll in a conference tournament. The Cardinal just does not have enough offensive weapons, and it lost to first-round opponent Arizona State twice.
OREGON
Why they could win it: Maybe theteam will be inspired to win for Ernie Kent, who is expected to get fired. The Ducks have won three of their last four games, so they are playing pretty well. Playing the play-in game on Wednesday is not a blessing, but if they win that first one, it may give the Ducks an edge the next night over a Cal team that might be rusty.
Why they won’t: Winning three games in three days is hard enough. Having to win a fourth makes it that much tougher. Even if it manages to win a game or two, it will be more worn out that its opponents in the semifinals. Oregon has been so erratic, it’s hard to imagine it putting four good games together.
WASHINGTON STATE
Why they could win: Klay Thompson can carry a team if he gets hot. The Cougars lost several close games, so they are not far off. If the Cougars’ uptempo style gets clicking, they can get on a roll. They have road wins over USC and Arizona, so they are capable.
Why they won’t: The Cougars are 2-9 over their final 11 games, and it’s tough to turn that trend around at this stage. Like Oregon, WSU would have to win four games in four days, which is a big challenge.
- Deuteronomy 8:18