Dec 30th, 2009
With Pac-10 play beginning this week, the question is not whether Stanford will win its 10th straight Pac-10 regular-season title but whether it will go undefeated in the process.
Cal coach Joanne Boyle must coax more out her freshmen to be successful this season -- Associated Press photo
While winning or tying for 18 of the past 21 Pac-10 championships, the Cardinal has gone 18-0 only four times and not at all since 2001-2002. But it’s hard to imagine any conference team beating this Stanford squad, which has the four best players in the conference — Kayla Pedersen, Nneka Ogwumike, Jayne Appel and Jeanette Pohlen. Depth and quickness are Stanford’s only shortcomings, and though Arizona State, USC and UCLA are likely to get NCAA Tournament berths, they are playing for second place.
Cal, which opens conference play at Stanford on Saturday, has been a disappointment so far. However, the foot stress reaction that kept freshman Gennifer Brandon out for several games is not as bad as originally believed, and she may be back for the Pac-10 opener at Stanford. That should help, and so should the 25-point road win over Nevada on Wednesday. The Bears’ freshman-laden team should improve, but whether it will be enough to make the NCAA Tournament is in question.
The other intriguing team is Oregon under first-year-head cach Paul Westhead, who is using the same wacky, shoot-as-soon-as-possible style that helped the Loyola Marymount men to national fame in late 1980s and early 1990s.
Here’s our projected order of finish:
- Stanford (9-1) – The Cardinal lost only one conference game last season, and it is better this season. Losing to Connecticut in Hartford does not dismiss the possibility that this is Tara VanDerveer’s best team ever. Typically, Stanford does not have players with huge offensive numbers, and only one Cardinal player has led the Pac-10 in scoring — Candice Wiggins in 2006 and 2008. But Cardinal players Nneka Ogwumike and Kayla Pedersen rank first and second in the conference in scoring at the moment, and last season’s Pac-10 player of the year Jayne Appel is still searching for her rhythm following offseason knee surgery.
- Arizona State (8-3) – The Sun Devils are the only other ranked Pac-10 team but we give them only a razor-thin edge over the Los Angeles schools. All three of their losses have been to teams currently ranked among the top 15 and losing on the road to Baylor by just four points is what convinced us to put them at No. 2. ASU is a good defensive team and a good rebounding team and their sizable crowds give them a nice homecourt advantage, but they just don’t have enough weapons to deal with Stanford.
- UCLA (7-4) – Markel Walker is the best freshman in the conference, and adding Jasmine Dixon may give her enough support to overtake Arizona State. This may be the best defensive team in the Pac-10 and close road losses to Texas Tech and Kansas and a 14-point road loss to Tennessee look bad only in the win-loss record. Dixon has played just four games since becoming eligible following her transfer from Rutgers in the middle of last season, and it is already apparent she will have an impact.
- USC (6-5) – Losing by just six points on the road against Duke got everyone’s attention. So did beating Texas. Michael Cooper knows how to coach, and he might be able to push the Trojans all the way up to second place. Point guard Ashley Corral gives him a nice centerpiece. But that home loss to North Carolina State on Wednesday was not what the Trojans wanted heading into conference play, especially with Corral going 1-for-12 from the field.
- Cal (6-5) – The Bears have fallen hard after starting the season in the top 25 and, at the moment, they are not even the fifth best team in the conference. The home loss to San Jose State was a shocker and losing at home to Boston College was only slightly more tolerable. But five freshmen are playing prominent roles, and DeNesha Stallworth has the look of a future star, so Cal should improve as the season goes on and be pretty good by March. They need fifth-year senior Alexis Gray-Lawson to pick up her game, though.
- Oregon (9-3) – The Ducks lead the conference in scoring in Westhead’s odd approach, which is based on increasing the pace of the game and shooting a lot of three-pointers. Taylor Lilley has already attempted 101 three-point shots. She, Amanda Johnson and Micaela Cocks will launch from long range at any time, and make quite a few. It will be interesting to see whether conference teams can handle that style.
- Arizona (5-4) – Ify Ibekwe may be the best player not at Stanford, and freshman Davellyn Whyte has potential, but the Wildcats don’t have much else, as the loss to UC Riverside demonstrated.
- Oregon State (7-2) – The record is misleading, because the Beavers’ nonconference schedule has been weak. They are yielding only 50.0 points a game and have been doing a good job on the boards, but those numbers will change in the Pac-10.
- Washington State (5-6) – Freshman point guard Kiki Moore, who leads the conference in steals at 4.0 a game, is fascinating, but the Cougars just don’t shoot well enough to be much of a threat and Moore commits too many turnovers.
- Washington (5-5) – Losses to San Francisco and Sacramento State suggest this will be a long season for the Huskies. Sami Whitcomb and good crowd support are the positive elements.
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