Dec 19th, 2009
When an accepted belief is refuted by those annoying little things called facts, it’s kind of disconcerting.
Christopher Columbus: I told Queen Isabella the world was round and she finally bought it after turning me down three times. Oh, and go Buckeyes, located in the city that bears my name
Remember when elementary-school teachers told us Christopher Columbus sailed westward in 1492 in courageous defiance of the belief that the world was flat? Well, it kind of ruins the story, not to mention your history teachers’ credbility, to find out years later that it had been widely held for more than 1,000 years before Columbus set sail that the Earth was spherical. Old Chris just didn’t know how far it was to Asia by heading west or that there was a rather large land mass that would block his trip.
Now, we are not going to claim any surprising revelation in sports is comparable to the shape of a heavenly body, but it was a bit of a jolt to realize that bowls seem to be a pretty good indicator of a conference’s strength.
For years, those of us who thought we knew something about college football laughed at those yahoos who made sweeping, chest-beating claims about a conference’s strength based on a handful of postseason games. Those in the know patiently pointed out that the individual matchups were the deciding factor, not which region a school resided.
Well, guess what? The yahoos may have been right.
There is nothing scientifc about the data gathering here, but it sure seems that the conferences deemed to be strongest do better in the postseason. The Southeastern Conference, generally regarded as the best conference, is 13-4 in bowls the past two years. The Big Ten, which keeps adding evidence that it’s not the conference it used to be, is 4-11 in the postseason in that same stretch. The Big 12 is 9-6, which corresponds to that conference’s ranking in the public eye, and so does the 6-12 bowl record put together by the mediocre Atlantic Coast Conference the past two years.
So maybe the Pac-10 deserved to crow a little when it went 5-0 in bowls last season and 9-2 over the past two. The argument holds more water when you look at 1999, probably the weakest Pac-10 season in recent history, as evidenced by the fact that a Stanford team that lost to San Jose State and to Texas by a score of 69-17 found itself in the Rose Bowl as the Pac-10 chanp. It should not be a surprise, then, that the Pac-10 went 1-4 in bowls that season, the only Pac-10 win being a 24-20 Oregon victory over Minnesota, which committed three turnovers to help the Ducks along.
All of this is a preamble to a single point: The Pac-10 can wipe away any thoughts that the conference was down this season if it can win most of the seven bowl cames in which it is involved.
The fact that the Pac-10 is favored in five of those games, rated even in another and an underdog in just one bodes well for the conference. Since Stanford, the only Pac-10 underdog, does not even have its starting quarterback, the Cardinal and the Pac-10 have a built in excuse if Stanford loses to Oklahoma. And if Stanford should beat the Sooners . . . well, bring on the SEC.
The fact that none of the Pac-10 bowl games is against a SEC team tends to quiet that bravado a bit. In fact, the Pac-10 has not played an SEC team in a bowl game since 2001, when Georgia Tech upset Stanford in the Seattle Bowl, a game that died after two seasons. And that game was the only time in the past 17 years the SEC and Pac-10 met up in the postseason. Seems kind of shame, perhaps necessitating the creation of a new bowl that would automatically pit the two conferences. Call it the We Have Nothing In Common Bowl sponsored by Viagra.
So anyway, here is what the Pac-10 teams are looking at:
Max Hall (15) is not a big fan of the Utes -- Photo by Scott G. Winterton/Deseret News
Oregon State, favored by 2 1/2, versus BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl — This has special meaning for the Pac-10 because it is one of two games against the Mountain West Conference, which caused great embarrassment to the Pac-10 when MWC teams had a 6-1 record against the Pac-10 during rhe 2008 regular season. Oregon State coach Mike Riley knows how to win bowls, going 5-0 in the postseason as the Beavers head coach. There is the suspicion that BYU quarterback Max Hall will confound the Beavers defense, but there is a competing notion that Hall won’t even be the best quarterback on the field with Sean Canfield on the other side.
Cal, favored by 3 1/2, vs. Utah in the Poinsettia Bowl — Another pivotal Pac-10-MWC matchup. Utah is going with a freshman quarterback who has played only four games (Jordan Wynn), but a lot of the guys on this Utah team played on Utes’ Sugar Bowl team that upset Alabama. Utah coach Kyle Whittingham has never lost a bowl game, and Cal coach Jeff Tedford has lost only one. As is always the case for Cal this season, the game will be determined by Bears quarterback Kevin Riley. When he’s comfortable, the Bears win. When he’s not, they lose. Maybe Cal can ask for a motivational speech from BYU’s Hall, who called Utah “classless” after the Cougars beat the Utes 26-23.
USC, favored by 7 or 8 or 9, depending on what you read, versus Boston College in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco — There are those in the Pac-10 that would like to see the Trojans lose even if it costs the conference a little respect, and it’s hard to imagine USC players getting too worked up fto play this one. But besides running back Montel Harris, the Eagles don’t have too much to concern the Trojans, which will have a bit of a home-crowd advantage.
UCLA, favored by 4, versus Temple in the EagleBank Bowl — The Bruins had to search to find a bowl that would taken them, and they made it to this one only because Army lost to Navy. UCLA will wish Army had won if it loses this one to finish the season 6-7. Temple had a great season, but you’d expect any team in the Pac-10 to handle any Mid-American Conference team that lost to Division I-AA Villanova at home. Any of three quarterbacks could start for UCLA, although Kevin Prince’s shoulder should be healed enough for him to go.
Nebraska's Ndamukong Suh (left) finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting -- Associated Press photo
Arizona, even, versus Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl — The Cornhuskers don’t seem to have much of an offense, but we’re not going to disparage the Bay Area kid, Nebraska quarterback Zac Lee, who went to San Francisco’s St. Ignatius High School. A bigger concern for Arizona is Nebraska defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who could make things difficult for Arizona quarterback Nick Foles. If Foles gets enough time, the Wildcats should be OK.
Stanford, underdog by 7, versus Oaklahoma in the Sun Bowl — Facing the Sooners’ defense without the support of Andrew Luck’s passing threat will makes things difficult for Toby Gerhart. If he can gain significant yardage in this game, the Heisman committee should authorize another round of voting. The Cardinal’s best hope is that Luck’s broken right index finger heals faster than expected and he can play a little.
Oregon, favored by 2, versus Ohio State in the Rose Bowl — Not only would an Oregon win do the most good for the Pac-10′s reputation but it would add another piece of evidence that the Big Ten is lousy. The Buckeyes’ long layoff since their last regular-season game Nov. 21 will benefit Oregon, which played its final game on Dec. 3. If the Ducks’ razzle-dazzle offense razzles and dazzles Ohio State, we may again hear the claim that the Pac-10 offense are more creative than those in the Big Ten.
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ACC is 6-12 in last two years–albeit not much better than the 4-12 record you listed, I thought I would at least point it out