Jan 17th, 2010
Cal and Stanford have two of the best three-point shooters in the country, which is why those two teams are inconsistent. In fact, the abundance of skilled long-range shooters throughout the Pac-10 is what has brought the conference to its knees.
The presence of 7-footers Robin (left) and Brook Lopez gave Stanford consistent production two years ago -- Photo by Nick de la Torre/Houston Chroncle
OK, those who have paid any attention to JakesTakeOnSports know that we love paradoxes (yes, that is the plural of paradox, even though it sounds dreadfully wrong), and our claim that the three-point shooting excellence of players like Cal’s Jerome Randle, Stanford’s Jeremy Green, Washington State’s Klay Thompson, UCLA’s Michael Roll, Oregon’s Tajuan Porter and Arizona State’s Rihard Kuksiks has led to the downfall of basketball in our little area seems illogical at best and inane at worst.
Afterall, those guys can ignite a crowd and eliminate a double-digit deficit with just a few strokes of their confident shooting arms, and they have all done so on occasion. Which is part of our argument.
To understand our seemingly weird little argument, we need to begin with the case of St. Mary’s. The Gaels rely heavily on the three-point shot and have two of the best around in Mickey McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova. Yet the Gaels have been remarkably consistent, winning all the games you would think they should win, including Saturday’s home game against Portland, and losing all the games you’d think they should lose, such as last Thursday’s game against Gonzaga.
One glaring difference exists between the Gaels and most Pac-10 teams this season, though: St. Mary’s as an inside scoring threat.
St. Mary’s Omar Samhan proved again last week that he is the best center on the West Coast, coming alive in the second half of both games to give the Gaels a chance against Gonzaga and leading the Gaels to an important bounce-back victory over a good Portland team. Inside scoring is what gives a team consistency. Samhan shoots a high percentage, gets opposing players in foul trouble and gets a lot opportunities to score free points on foul shots, all the while opening the court up for his teammates to have open looks.
Dellavedova was 4-for-4 on three-pointers against Gonzaga, but the Gaels still lost. He was 1-for-4 from beyond the arc against Portland, and the Gaels won. That’s because the inside work of Samhan smoothes everything over. Samhan was great in the second half of both games, scoring 49 of his 59 points after intermission to keep the pressure on the opposing big men and keep defensive pressure off the Gaels’ shooters.
There is no Omar Samhan in the Pac-10. Last season, Washington’s Jon Brockman, Arizona State’s Jeff Pendergraph, Arizona’s Jordan Hill and USC’s Taj Gibson all provided an inside offensive presence, which is why they were four of the six Pac-10 teams to get to the NCAA Tournament. Two years ago, UCLA center Kevin Love and Stanford’s Robin and Brook Lopez made those teams consistent winners, both of whom wound up ranked in the final top 10.
If you look for an inside scoring presence in the Pac-10 this season, and all you come up with is Alex Stepheson of USC, who is averaging just 10.2 points, but still might be enough of a low-post threat to make the Trojans the most consistent team in the Pac-10. (They are 3-2 and both their losses were close.)
The rest are dependent on their bombers. When those guys are hot, those teams can be spectacular, beating teams that are more talented and making you wonder how they ever lose. But when those deep threats are missing shots, as they sometimes do, or when an opposing defense finds a way to shut down those shooters, as they sometimes do, that team can look very ordinary. They can’t dump the ball inside to a big guy who get a high-percentage two-point basket or some free throws. Those close-range scores are not nearly as exhilarating as 25-foot shots and don’t have the immediate impact on the scoreboard that three-pointers do. They don’t even lead to upset wins as often. Bhey keep things predictable.
Cal looked like an offensive monster in Thursday’s game against Washington State because Randle hit 7 of 12 three-pointers and scored 39 points. But two days later, Washington had a defensive answer for Randle in quick guard Isaiah Thomas, who limited Randle to five points on 1-for-6 three-point shooting, which in turn limited the Bears to 69 points in a lopsided loss that made you wonder whether Cal will win another game this season.
Rihards Kuksiks (left) can score points in a hurry from long range -- 51 of his 80 made field goals this season have been three-pointers
Stanford looked like a world beater when Green was pouring in shots from the 28-foot range while scoring 30 points against USC on January 9, but he and Stanford were helpless on Thursday when Thomas, with the help of double teams, limited Green to seven points and 0-for-3 three-point shooting in a 33-point Washington win.
Two days later, Washington State’s Thompson was on fire from long range to start the game and scored 17 first-half points to give the Cougars a 20-point lead at halftime. With Green hitting only 1 of 5 three-pointers in the first 20 minutes, the Cardinal seemed hopelessly out of it. But in second half, Green nailed four three-pointers and scored 16 second-half points while Thompson went 0-for-4 from beyond the three-point line, allowing the Cardinal to close to within two points on three occasions in the final minute.
That is what leads to the unpredictability. Kuksiks did not hit a single three-pointer and scored two points when Arizona State scored 37 points in a 10-point loss to USC, but when he was 4-for-6 on three-pointers and scored 25 against Oregon, the Sun Devils scored 76 points and won by 19 on the road.
Porter made 10 three-pointers and scored 42 points in Oregon’s surprising road wins over Washington State and Washington, but he was just 6-for-22 from long range in the home losses to Oregon State, Arizona State and Arizona, totaling just 31 points in those three games.
Roll was 7-for-10 on three-pointers in UCLA two conference wins and 6-for-18 in their three losses.
And on it goes.
It seems the Pac-10 team that has the most good three-point shooting games will win the conference title, which is why we have our money (theoretical money, of course) on Cal and Arizona State, both of whom have several players who can make three-pointers regularly.
