One day after Stanford offensive coordinator David Shaw said it was “very, very doubtful” that Cardinal redshirt freshman quarterback Andrew Luck would play in Thursday’s Sun Bowl, Cardinal head coach Jim Harbaugh said on Wednesday that there is a chance Luck could play.

Lucks’ status becomes the No. 1 issue of the of the game between between Stanford (8-4) and Oklahoma (7-5), but it is not the only issue:

Tavita Pritchard after guiding Stanford to the 24-23 victory over USC in 2007 -- Associated Press Photo by Matt Sayles

Point A: It’s hard to know how serious Harbaugh was about Luck’s chances of playing three days after having the pin removed from his broken right index finger.    It does Harbaugh no harm to say he won’t make a decision on Luck’s status until Thursday morning, if only to give the Sooners something more to think about.     But you have to be careful about what Harbaugh says.   You will recall that he withheld infomation about Luck’s broken finger until after the Cardinal had been invited to the Sun Bowl, a berth that goes to the No. 3 team in the Pac-10.  Luck has not practiced at all since the injury, so he is unlikely to be sharp if he plays, and Tavita Pritchard is still expected to be the starter.   But if Luck can play with even a modicum of effectiveness, it increases the Cardinal’s chances.

Point B:  Shaw did not say on Tuesday that Luck would not play, only that it was “very, very doubtful.”   Presumably, that gave Luck a better chance to play than if he were very, very, very doubtful, and Stanford fans should thank their lucky stars he was not listed as very, very, very, very doubtful, because that would give him very, very, very little chance of playing.    As it turns out, there is only very little chance of him playing, which constitutes a major improvement in his status.

Point C: It’s interesting that the Stanford player who finished second in the closest Heisman voting in history will not be the center of attention.  Rather than being on Toby Gerhart and his 1,736 rushing yards, the focus will be on a player who probably will not play (Luck) and another who has completed just one pass for one yard this season.  The latter person is Pritchard, who, for the rest of his life, will be known as the guy who quarterbacked Stanford to the biggest upset in college football history two years ago against USC.  (I can see his gravestone now –  Tavita Pritchard: Beat USC in 2007. Also invented cure for cancer.)

Point D: If Gerhart gains 150 yards in this one, he should demand a recount on the Heisman voting or declare himself the winner by acclamation.   Not only does Oklahoma have one of the best run defenses in the country, led by defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, but it will be even more focused on stopping the run with Pritchard as the quarterback.   The Sooners may put 11 men in the proverbial box, assuming Pritchard won’t hit uncovered receivers.   (When Gerhart said before the season he hoped to rush for 2,000 yards it seemed an absurd goal.  He won’t make it, but it no longer sounds absurd.)   If Luck should somehow get into the game and be effective at all, then Gerhart’s chances of gaining some yards increase.

Point E: This presumably will be Gerhart’s last college game.  Although he has another year of college eligibility, he has hinted strongly he will enter the NFL draft after this season.   There is a reason he took 21 class units this fall, an overwhelming load for a football player unless he wanted to get his degree early, which Gerhart will.  At the moment, Gerhart is expected to get taken in the second or third round, but that could change if he records a good time in the 40-yard dash.   With the pounding Gerhart takes every game, the limited length of an NFL running back’s career and the unlikely chance that he can match this season’s performance,  it would seem silly for Gerhart to return to Stanford next season.

Point F: It is hard to imagine Stanford winning this game.   If Luck were healthy, the game figured to be a tossup, but with Luck sidelined, the Cardinal is virtually the same team it was last season, when it went 5-7.   If Luck plays (which, as we know, is very doubtful – or is it very, very doubtful?), the Cardinal’s chances increase, but  even if Luck get on the field, he can’t be expected to be his normal efficient self.   Unless Chris Owusu runs a few kickoffs back for touchdowns – and Oklahoma is unlikely to give him that chance – the Sooners should roll.   Stanford’s defense is not very good, a fact disguised by the Cardinal offense’s ability to control the ball with its running game.  The fact that Bob Stoops has lost five of his past six bowl games is the only historical evidence that Stanford has a chance.  There is a reason he is no longer called Big Game Bob, but one could debate whether this Sun Bowl constitutes a big game.  Those five previous bowl losses were all in BCS games.

Point G: The 11 a.m. starting time (West Coast time) might be a problem for the Cardinal if coach Jim Harbaugh had allowed his players to venture into Juarez, which is right across the Mexican border.  That  town is off limits, and Harbaugh told Sun Bowl officials Stanford won’t be needing the courtesy buses bowl organizers supply to teams for players who want to, uh, enjoy the nightlife in the days leading up to the game.

Point H: Have you noticed how many times we have mentioned the name of a guy who probably won’t play?   Luck never got this much attention when he was playing.  Now he has become the intriguing mystery man, and the public perception is that the outcome of the game hangs on whether he will play, which, of course, is very, very doubtful.