The college bowl season has become a vexing time for the discerning couch potato.

   Well over half the 119 eligible FBS teams, including one with a losing record, are in the 35 bowls, and neither team has a winning record in four of those games.  Obviously some bowls are not worth watching.

   Intriguing bowl moments do exist, such as the 11 consecutive hours of bowl-viewing nirvana, when ESPN shows the Capital One Bowl, Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl  back-to-back-to-back from 10 a.m. to 9 p.m. on Monday, Jan. 2. 

    But the overpopulated bowl calendar and ever-changing bowl names make those segments  difficult to identify.  Last season, the Meineke Car Care Bowl was in Charlotte, N.C., but that bowl is now the Belk Bowl, while the bowl in Houston, which was the Texas Bowl last season, is now the Meineke Car Care Bowl.

   More confusing is the Cotton Bowl. Arkansas and Kansas State are playing in the Cotton Bowl but not at the Cotton Bowl, while Houston and Penn State are playing at the Cotton Bowl but are not participating in the Cotton Bowl.

    No bowl games will be played on Jan. 1, the date traditionally associated with the bowl-watching experience, because Jan. 1 falls on a Sunday, and the bowl credo is “Thou shalt not compete with the NFL.”

   In response to the viewing conundrum, we provide a Watchability Meter, a numerical rating from 0 to 10 for all 35 games in the 24-day bowl package, with 0 indicating “Keeping of with the Kardashians” would be preferable viewing and 10 suggesting the purchase of a big-screen HD TV for that one game would be money well spent.

   The Watchability Meter – or WM — is based on the significance of the game, quality of the participants, entertainment potential, star power and intangibles (such as game time, local interest and school name recognition).

   New Mexico Bowl, Dec. 17, 11 a.m., ESPN – Temple (8-4) vs. Wyoming (8-4): These teams aren’t absolutely horrible, which is a compliment for bowl season. Temple’s Bernard Pierce is sixth nationally in rushing. WM: 4.3.

   Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, Dec. 17, 2:30 p.m., ESPN: Ohio (9-4) vs. Utah State (7-5): Exciting Ohio QB Tyler Tettleton is the son of former A’s catcher Mickey Tettleton, and the Aggies rebounded from a 2-5 start. Good time slot. WM: 4.9.

   New Orleans Bowl, Dec. 17, 6 p.m., ESPN: San Diego State (8-4) vs. Louisiana Lafayette (8-4): Aztecs sophomore Ronnie Hillman is third nationally in rushing. WM: 4.7

   Beef  O Brady’s Bowl, Dec. 20, 5 p.m., ESPN: Florida International (8-4) vs. Marshall (6-6): Teams that finished with the fourth-best records in the Mid-American Conference and Conference-USA don’t portend excitement. WM: 3.2.

   Poinsettia Bowl, Dec. 21, 5 p.m., ESPN: TCU (10-2) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4): Both teams won a conference title, TCU barely missed a BCS berth, and Tech won its final seven games. WM: 6.0.

   Las Vegas Bowl, Dec. 22, 5 p.m., ESPN – Boise State (11-1) vs. Arizona State (6-6): Final college game for  Boise QB Kellen Moore, and he should go wild against ASU, which collapsed late in the season and fired coach Dennis Erickson.  WM: 6.3 (for the first half).

   Hawaii Bowl, Dec. 24, 5 p.m., ESPN – Southern Miss (10-2) vs. Nevada (7-5): This is interesting for its weirdness, because Larry Fedora will be the Southern Miss coach, even though he’s accepted the job as North Carolina’s coach. WC: 4.9.

   Independence Bowl, Dec. 26, 2 p.m., ESPN2 – Missouri (7-5) vs. North Carolina (7-5): Both teams have pretty good quarterbacks (Missouri’s James Franklin, North Carolina’s Bryn Penner), but both were expecting more. WM: 6.0.

   Little Caesars Bowl, Dec. 27, 1:30 p.m., ESPN – Western Michigan (7-5) vs. Purdue (6-6): Two nondescript teams following mediocre seasons.  Western Michigan likes to throw a lot, if that interests you. WM: 4.1.

   Belk Bowl, Dec. 27, 5 p.m., ESPN – Louisville (7-5) vs. North Carolina State (7-5): Each beat a team competing in the Orange Bowl, so that’s something, but both teams have lousy offenses. WM: 4.6.

   Military Bowl, Dec. 28, 1:30 p.m., ESPN – Toledo (8-4) vs. Air Force (7-5): If you like the old-school triple option, Air Force runs it to perfection. Toledo averaged 52.8 points over its final five games and has a 32-year-old head coach. WM: 5.7.

   Holiday Bowl, Dec. 28, 5 p.m., ESPN – Cal (7-5) vs. Texas (7-5): The presence of a local team that played well down the stretch against a traditional powerhouse should draw good TV ratings in the Bay Area. WM: 7.6.

   Champs Sports Bowl, Dec. 29, 2:30 p.m., ESPN – Notre Dame (8-4) vs. Florida State (8-4): Two schools with high name recognition that played well at the end of the season.   Too bad it’s on a Thursday afternoon. WM: 6.4.

   Alamo Bowl, Dec. 29, 6 p.m., ESPN – Baylor (9-3) vs. Washington (7-5): Any game featuring a Heisman Trophy winner (Baylor QB Robert Griffin III) has appeal, and Washington quarterback (Keith Price) is pretty darn good too. WM: 7.2.

   Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 30, 9 a.m., ESPN – BYU (9-3) vs. Tulsa (8-4): A 9 a.m. game Friday morning makes this a tough sell on the West Coast, but the ball should be flying around and points will be scored. WM: 4.8.

   Pinstripe Bowl, Dec. 30, 12:20 p.m., ESPN – Iowa State (6-6) vs. Rutgers (8-4): Iowa State beat Oklahoma State, but the thought of a football game at Yankee Stadium is disturbing. WM: 4.2.

   Music City Bowl, Dec. 30, 3:40, ESPN – Mississippi State (6-6) vs. Wake Forest (6-6): This is third of four games that will provide 13 consecutive hours of bowl action on ESPN. This is the least attractive of the four. WM: 3.9.

   Insight Bowl, Dec. 30, 7 p.m., ESPN – Oklahoma (9-3) vs. Iowa (7-4): Ranked No. 1 in preseason, the Sooners did not expect to be playing in this bowl against a team that was 4-4 in the Big Ten. Oklahoma QB Landry Jones is a first-round NFL talent. WM: 6.1.

   Meineke Car Care Bowl, Dec. 31, 9 a.m. ESPN – Texas A&M (6-6) vs. Northwestern (6-6): The nation’s most disappointing team (Texas A&M) gets to play early on a Saturday morning. You can sleep in. WM: 4.0.

   Sun Bowl, Dec. 31, 11 a.m., CBS – Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5): Neither team can throw the ball, so prepare for a lot of old-fashioned grind-it-out football.  Some people claim to enjoy that. WM: 5.1.

   Liberty Bowl, Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m., ESPN – Vanderbilt (6-6) vs. Cincinnati (9-3): Vandy is one of three SEC bowl teams that had 2-6 conference records, but the Commodores nearly beat Georgia and Arkansas.  WM: 5.5.

   Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, Dec. 31, 12:30 p.m., ESPN – Illinois (6-6) vs. UCLA (6-7): Both teams fired their coaches, so that says something, but the game is at AT&T Park, which may interest Bay Area fans. WM: 5.8.

   Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31, 4:30 p.m., ESPN – Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5): The defending national champs will be without star running back Michael Dyer (suspended), and the Cavaliers’ star is their coach, Mike London. WM: 5.7.

   TicketCity Bowl, Jan. 2, 9 a.m., ESPNU – Penn State (9-3) vs. Houston (12-1): Penn State’s off-the-field infamy and great defense against a Cougars’ offense that averages 50.8 points provides entertainment value, but a Monday morning game on a channel many don’t get makes viewing a chore. WM: 5.8.

   Outback Bowl, Jan. 2, 10 a.m., ABC – Michigan State (10-3) vs. Georgia (10-3): A pair of conference runnersup meet in a game that serves as worthy warmup to a strong day of bowl viewing. But it’s a Monday morning. WM: 6.4.

   Capital One Bowl, Jan. 2, 10 a.m., ESPN – Nebraska (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2): A decent game competing with three other decent bowl games in the same early weekday  time slot. Why do networks do this? WM: 6.1.

   Gator Bowl, Jan. 2, 10 a.m., ESPN2 – Ohio State (6-6) vs. Florida (6-6): Big-time programs experiencing small-time seasons, with the specter of Urban Meyer looming over both. WM: 5.9.

   Rose Bowl, Jan. 2, 2 p.m., ESPN – Oregon (11-2) vs. Wisconsin (11-2): Two top-10 teams that feature high-scoring offenses with outstanding running backs (Oregon’s LaMichael James, Wisconsin’s Montee Ball) and productive quarterbacks (Oregon’s Darron Thomas, Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson). WM: 8.1.

   Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 2, 5:30 p.m., ESPN: Stanford (11-1) vs. Oklahoma State (11-1): Both teams are ranked in the top four in the BCS, and both are ranked in the top five in scoring and have an outstanding quarterback – Stanford’s Andrew Luck, Oklahoma State Brandon Weeden. This is the second-best bowl game, and probably the most entertaining. WM: 8.8.

   Sugar Bowl, Jan. 3, 5:30 p.m., ESPN – Michigan (10-2) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2): The Wolverines always draw a big audience, and Michigan QB Denard Robinson will make the game exciting even though neither team deserves to be in this bowl. WM: 7.0

   Orange Bowl, Jan. 4, 5:30 p.m., ESPN – West Virginia (9-3) vs. Clemson (10-3):  Although it’s the worst of the BCS games, it is nicely placed on a Wednesday evening as the only game that night. WM: 6.4.

   Cotton Bowl, Jan. 6, 5 p.m., Fox – Kansas State (10-2) vs. Arkansas (10-2): This should be a BCS game. K-State is a surprising success story, and Arkansas lost only to LSU and Alabama while putting up big numbers. WM: 7.8.

   BBVA Compass Bowl, Jan. 7, 10 a.m., ESPN – SMU (7-5) vs. Pittsburgh (6-6): Try to say this bowl’s name three times fast, then let the kids watch Saturday morning cartoons.  Teams combined to commit 51 turnovers and allow 84 sacks. WM: 3.8.

   GoDaddy.com Bowl, Jan. 8, 6 p.m., ESPN – Arkansas State (10-2) vs. Northern Illinois (10-3): You would think two 10-win teams would produce an attractive bowl. Think again. NFL playoff games that day further trivialize this game. WM: 4.1.

   National championship game, Jan. 9, 5:30 p.m., ESPN – LSU (13-0) vs. Alabama (11-1): About 50 future NFL players will be in uniform for this one. Not many points will be scored, but the hitting will be almost inhuman, and a national title is at stake.  The TV ratings in the Southeast will be off the chart. WM: 9.2.

Now the BCS debates begin in earnest, complete with regional biases, different ranking interpretations, convoluted tie-breaker rules and a variety of expletives directed at the system.

The issue is fueled by the fact that unbeaten Stanford remained at No. 4 in the BCS standings, behind Alabama, even though Alabama lost on Saturday to LSU.   The issue figures to become more contentious with Stanford hosting Oregon and Boise State hosting TCU this weekend.

— Debate No. 1: Will Stanford move ahead of Alabama if it beats Oregon at Stanford on Saturday?

Probably.  Not only would a win over the Ducks (No. 7 in the BCS) sway a lot of voters the polls, it should help the Cardinal’s computer ranking significantly.  The fact that Stanford is only No. 7 in the BCS computers is what is holding the Cardinal back at the moment, because it is No. 2 in the USA Today poll and No. 3 in the Harris poll,  which make up two-thirds of the BCS formula.

How decisively Stanford wins would be a factor too.  Some voters are still unsure how good Stanford is, but a big win over the Ducks might vault them well ahead of Oklahoma State.   The total number of votes a team gets in the polls is what  matters in the BCS formula, not its rank.   Stanford has only a slim lead over Oklahoma State in the coaches poll, and increasing that margin will have a significant effect on the Cardinal’s BCS standing.

— Debate No. 2: Where should Alabama be ranked in human polls, both of which have the Tide at No. 4?

After playing LSU to a virtual tie, many believe Alabama is still the second-best team in the country and should be ranked accordingly.   But should pollsters vote based on which teams they believe are the best or which teams have had the best results?  They are not the same.  If voters base their rankings on results, a one-loss team from one conference should not be ranked ahead of an unbeaten team from a comparable conference.  If voting is based on the perception of which team is better, Alabama probably would be No. 2.   However, by that logic, perhaps Alabama should still be No. 1, because the Tide might be considered the better team after outgaining LSU 300-222 during regulation time and having more scoring opportunities but losing only because its kickers had a bad game.

— Debate No. 3: How could the Southeastern Conference’s complicated tie-breaker method for determining SEC title game participants keep a team that will play in the national championship game out of the SEC title game?

Let’s assume No. 7 Arkansas beats No. 1 LSU on Nov. 25 and  LSU, Arkansas and Alabama end in a three-way  in the SEC West.  The BCS standings would determine the SEC West representative – but in a strange, complicated way.  The team with the highest BCS ranking would be the SEC representative, unless the tied team with second-highest BCS ranking is within five spots of the SEC’s highest ranked BCS team and beat the  higher ranked team head-to-head, in which case the lower ranked team would play in the SEC title game.

Consider this possibility, if the three finish tied:

If the Dec. 4 BSC standings have Alabama No. 2, LSU No. 4 and Arkansas No. 5 – which seems logical if Arkansas should beat LSU — LSU would go to the SEC title game because it would be within five spots of Alabama in the BCS standings and beat Alabama head-to-head .  Nonetheless, Alabama would go to the national title game.

Stanford Can Clinch

Even though it has three more games left, Stanford would clinch a berth in the Pac-12 championship game as well as homefield advantage for that title game if it beats Oregon on Saturday, which will be the first time in history that two top-10 teams have played a football game at Stanford.   The magnitude of the game is why ESPN’s “College Gameday” will be on the Stanford campus Saturday, to broadcast its morning preview show.

No. 3-ranked Stanford plays what may be the biggest football game in its history when it hosts No. 6 Oregon on Nov. 12.     It may not be quite as big as the Nov. 5 game between Alabama and LSU, but it’s as close as it gets on the West Coast this season.

It is the first time in history two top 10 teams have played a game at Stanford, and the postseason implications for Stanford and Oregon are huge.   Both teams are in the national championship picture, and Stanford could put itself in prime contention for a spot in the national title game with a win.

Even though Stanford has two games after this one, a victory over Oregon would clinch a berth in the Pac-12 title for Stanford, and it would also assure Stanford of having the home field in that conference title contest.  If Oregon beats Stanford, it would need to win only one of its final two games against Oregon State and USC to get a berth in the Pac-12 title game.

The game will also go a long way toward determining whether Stanford QB Andrew Luck will win the Heisman Trophy.  The star on the opposing team, Oregon TB LaMichael James, leads the nation in rushing and is healthy again after missing two games with a dislocated elbow. James had a big game against Stanford last season, rushing for 257 yards in the Ducks win, and he could re-enter the Heisman picture with a big game in a Ducks victory.

He and the Ducks’ ground game, which leads the nation in yards per rushing attempt, will be a major challenge for a Stanford defense that ranks fourth nationally against the run but has yielded some long runs in recent games.   Long runs are the Ducks’ specialty, and teams with speed have had success getting to the perimeter against Stanford’s defense.  No team has more speed than the Ducks, and no team gets to the perimeter as well as the Ducks.

Oregon QB Darron Thomas also had a big game against Stanford last year, and he too is healthy again after missing one game and parts of two others with a knee injury.  He is the kind of mobile quarterback that has given the Cardinal problems.

Stanford’s defense could not hold up against Oregon last season, and it remains to be seen whether the Cardinal’s vulnerability against quick, athletic offensive teams continues to haunt Stanford.

Although both teams average better than 46 points a game and rank among the top five scoring teams in the country, the game will be a sharp contrast in offensive styles. Oregon looking for the big play on every snap and pushes the pace of its offense to a frenetic level to take advantage of its speed and finesse.   Stanford relies on a power offense that uses a fullback and two or three tight ends to try to overpower and wear down opponents with long drives.

Stanford will have to establish the running game it prefers to control the ball, slow the pace of the game and counter the speed of Oregon’s offense.  And, of course, Stanford needs Luck to control the game.   He will be without two prime receivers – TE Zach Ertz (knee) and WR Chris Owusu (concussion) — so he will have to find alternatives.

The one similarity of both offenses is that they have dominated play in the second half.   Close games involving both teams have become blowouts in the third quarter.  The team that can establish control in the third quarter will have the upper hand.

Stanford is riding a 17-game winning streak, and its last loss was to Oregon last season.   Oregon is riding an 18-game conference winning streak, and its last conference loss was to Stanford in 2009, the last time the teams met at Stanford.

NOTES

– Washington State coach Paul Wulff mentioned this week that the fact that game is being played on grass (at Stanford) instead of artificial turf (at Oregon) will be a distinct advantage for the Cardinal, because Oregon’s speed is enhanced on its fast artificial field.

– Stanford remained No. 4 in the BCS standings released Nov. 6 and was behind Alabama even though the Tide lost to LSU.  The Cardinal is No. 2 in the USA Today poll and No, 3 in the Harris poll, which are the two human polls used in the BCS formula, but Stanford is only ranked No. 7 by the BCS computers.    If Stanford beats Oregon, however, it is expected that Stanford would move to No. 3 in the BCS on Nov. 13, based primarily on the boost it would give Stanford’s computer ranking but also on the influence it would have on pollsters.

— Andrew Luck’s Heisman Trophy chances will probably be determined in the game against Oregon.   Typically,  a player’s performance in a big, nationally televised game late in the season has the biggest influence on his Heisman chances.  He also needs to be on a team that finishes ranked among the top five to have a decent shot at winning it.   Luck is the solid front-runner in virtually every Heisman poll out there at the moment, but if Stanford loses and Luck does not play well, he may drop out.

— Stanford is riding a 17-game winning streak, the longest in the country, and its last loss was to Oregon last season.   The Cardinal led last season’s game 21-3, but got overwhelmed by the Ducks in the second half of Oregon’s 52-31 victory.   Oregon is riding an 18-game conference winning streak, and its last conference loss was to Stanford in 2009, the last time the teams met at Stanford.   Oregon was coming off an emotion win over USC the week before it lost to Stanford two years ago.

— Oregon is averaging 6.99 yards per rushing attempt this season.   No one else in the country is averaging as much as 6.0 yards a carry.

— The absence of TE Zach Ertz could reduce the Cardinal’s use of its three-tight-end offense that has been so successful.   The Cardinal could plug in other players at those spots, but they are not the receiving threats that Ertz is.  Coby Fleener and Levine Toilolo still provide good targets, but the three-tight-end alignment, which provided so many option for the Cardinal and so many problems for defenses, will not be the weapon it was before Ertz’s injury.

— ESPN’s “College Gameday” will set up shop on the Stanford campus on Nov. 12, with its live preview of the day’s games starting at 6 a.m.

SCOUTING THE STANFORD OFFENSE: Stanford is third in the nation in scoring (48.2 ppg) and it is eighth in total offense.   It relies on the balance of its power running game and the play-action passing of Andrew Luck, who is fifth nationally in pass efficiency.   The team’s identity is as a run-first team and is led by Stepfan Taylor, who averages 99 yards per game, although three other backs get significant playing time.  The tight ends had been the Cardinal’s strength this season, and despite the absence of Zach Ertz, Stanford still has two other topflight tight ends — Coby Fleener and Levine Toilolo.   WR Griff Whalen has become the top receiving threat, and he will be a bigger factor with Chris Owusu out for the Oregon game and perhaps longer.   The Cardinal’s offensive line has played well this season and continues to improve.

SCOUTING THE STANFORD DEFENSE: The Cardinal’s defense has been generally dominant, but it showed some vulnerability against the run the past few games even though it ranks third nationally in run defense.   The absence of ILB Shayne Skov and SS Delano Howell has hurt the Cardinal’s run defense, which has yielded some long runs.   Skov is out for the season, but there is a chance Howell will play against Oregon.     Fast teams have had success getting to the perimeter on Stanford, and that is Oregon’s forte.    OLB Chase Thomas has 12.5 tackles for losses, and is the team’s big-play defender along with SS Michael Thomas, who has played both safety positions this season and has two of the team’s three interceptions.   The team’s defensive strength is its pass rush, which has accounted for 28 sacks.

QUOTE: “They’re constantly watching, and if you’re out of position, they’ll find it.” – Stanford coach David Shaw, on Oregon’s ability to find and exploit flaws in an opponent’s defense.

THIS WEEK’S GAME: Oregon at Stanford, Nov. 12 – Stanford is 9-0 overall and 7-0 in the conference, coming off a 38-3 victory over Oregon State,  while Oregon State is 8-1 overall and 6-0 in the Pac-12,  coming off a 34-17 victory over Washington.  Stanford has not lost at home since the 2009 season.  The Cardinal would clinch a berth in the Pac-12 title game with a win and would also clinch home-field advantage in that championship game.

SERIES HISTORY: Stanford leads 44-29-1.   Last meeting 2010 (52-31 Oregon).

KEYS TO THE GAME: Stanford must try slow the pace of the game as much as possible by controlling the ball for long stretches.  That means Stanford’s offensive line must dominate the game and Andrew Luck must be nearly flawless.   The Cardinal has yielded just four sacks, tied for the fewest in the nation, but USC had success putting pressure on Luck, and the Ducks have 29 sacks.   Stanford must be able to withstand the fast pace Oregon will try to use, especially in the third quarter.    If the Ducks get their offense going at a fast pace and can move the ball down the field in a hurry, the Cardinal may not be able to keep up.   The Cardinal must limit the number of long runs by Oregon running backs – whether it be LaMichael James (who averages 8.0 yards a carry)  or Kenjon Barner (6.8 yards a carry) or De’Anthony Thomas (8.5 yards per carry).  Any of the three is capable of a 50-yard touchdown run, and Stanford has yielded a number of long runs recently.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:

QB Andrew Luck – Luck’s Heisman Trophy status will be determined by the game against Oregon.    He played OK against Oregon last season, but not great, and he threw two interceptions that hurt the Cardinal’s chances.  He was outplayed by Oregon QB Darron Thomas in that game, and  Luck needs to outplay his Oregon counterpart for the Cardinal to win.

TE Coby Fleener – Fleener has eight touchdown catches and is Andrew Luck’s prime target when the Cardinal gets into the red zone.   He becomes even more important with TE Zach Ertz sidelined with an injury.

OLB Chase Thomas – The most publicized member of the Stanford defense, Thomas has 12.5 tackles for losses and 6.5 sacks.  He needs to at least bother Oregon QB Darron Thomas.

TB Stepfan Taylor – The versatile back is averaging 99 yards per game, and the Cardinal needs him to get consistent gains for Stanford to sustain long drives and slow the game’s pace.  He had 113 yards against Oregon last season, but 44 came on one touchdown run in the first half.

ROSTER REPORT:

— WR Chris Owusu sustained his third concussion in 13 months in the Oregon State game, and though he seems to be fine and passed all the tests required for him to play, he will not play against Oregon as a precaution.   Whether he will play again this season is uncertain.

– SS Delano Howell missed the past three games with a hand injury, but he might play in the Oregon game, which would be a significant boost because defensive back have to make a lot of tackles against the Ducks.

— TE Zach Ertz sustained a knee injury against USC, missed the Oregon State game and is expected to miss the Nov. 12 Oregon game as well.

— OT Cameron Fleming missed the Oregon State game with a knee injury and is questionable for the Oregon game.

— TE Levine Toilolo injured his shoulder in the Oregon State game, but he is expected to play in the Oregon game.

— K Jordan Williams missed the USC game and the Oregon State game after sustaining a pulled muscle in pregame warmup of the USC game, and he is questionable for the Oregon game.

Cal’s game against Oregon State on Nov. 12 at San Francisco’s AT&T Park may not be the biggest game in the Bay Area that day, but it is awfully big for the Golden Bears.

About 30 minutes south, Stanford will be hosting Oregon in a game with national championship implications.   Cal has its own postseason goals, and the pressure on the Bears to get to a bowl is just as intense as it is on Stanford.

The Bears are 5-4, one win shy of being bowl-eligible, and they desperately need to get that win against the Beavers.    The final two games are against Stanford and Arizona State, both on the road.  Cal has not played well on the road, and both those foes have been ranked much of this season (although ASU fell out of the rankings after losing to UCLA on Nov. 5).

But Oregon is 2-7 after its loss to Stanford on Nov. 5, and the Bears have played infinitely better at home than on the road – especially on the defensive side.

Quite simply, the Cal defense has been outstanding at AT&T Park, in direct contrast to its struggles on the road.

The Beavers are clearly improving as the season goes along, which is a trademark of Mike Riley-coached teams, so winning may not be as easy as it might seem for Cal.

Oregon State’s redshirt freshman QB Sean Mannion is improving every game, and he gave Stanford trouble in the Beavers’ previous game.    It will be up to the Bears’ defense to  put pressure on Mannion, and that may be more difficult with the Bears banged up at the linebacker spot.  The fact that Oregon State has almost no running game will help the Bears, however.

More important is the play of QB Zach Maynard.   There is no question about his starting status this week as there was heading into the Washington State game, because he played an efficient, if unspectacular, game against the Cougars.

He did not turn the ball over against Washington State, and if he does not throw any interceptions against Oregon State, the Bears have a good shot at qualifying for a bowl by beating the Beavers.

NOTES

— The fact that Washington State coach Paul Wulff called Cal the best-looking football team he’s seen in the conference continues to echo as a significant statement, given that Washington State has played Stanford and Oregon this season.    Here’s what Wulff said after his team’s 30-7 loss to Cal on Nov. 5: “They are the best-looking football team that I have seen in the conference, period.  They probably have the best talent, top to bottom.”

It’s hard to know whether that is a compliment, because it suggests the Golden Bears, who are 2-4 in the Pac-12, are underachieving.    That does not look good for Jeff Tedford and his coaches.   On the other hand, it might just be Wulff reacting to the Bears’ best game of the season, which was not representative of their season as a whole, especially on the road.

— Cal’s defense is puzzling to say the least, a fact reinforced by limiting Washington State to seven points, its lowest total of the season, on Nov. 5 at home, seven days after yielding 31 points to UCLA on the road.   In the 11 home games Cal has played since Clancy Pendergast became defensive coordinator, Cal foes are averaging just 11.0 points a game, but in the nine road games, opponents are averaging 32.8 points.   That’s an amazing disparity.   This season, Cal is limiting opponents to 14.75 points at home but allowing 34.5 points on the road.  Fitting the model perfectly is the fact that in their one neutral-site game, the Bears yielded 21 points — 10 points more than their home average and 13.5 points less than their road average.   Not surprisingly, Cal is 7-4 in those home games, and 2-7 on the road.

— If Cal beats Oregon State to become bowl eligible, it’s unclear which bowl Cal would play in, but it would probably be one of three – the New Mexico Bowl, the Las Vegas Bowl or the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl.   Playing in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl seems the most likely at the moment, and that would put Cal in a game in its 2011 home stadium – AT&T Park.    Its opponent there could be any of a number of teams, from Army to a Western Athletic Conference team to an ACC team.   In the Las Vegas Bowl, Cal might play TCU.   In the New Mexico Bowl, Cal would play the Mountain West fifth-place team, which could be Air Force.

SCOUTING THE CAL OFFENSE: Like virtually every offense, Cal’s productivity relies on the performance of its quarterback, and QB Zach Maynard has been good in some games and not so good in others.    His completion percentage is low (53.7 percent), and he has thrown 10 interceptions.   But seven of those picks came in two games, so his interceptions come in bunches.   When he rolls out to his left, Maynard is far more accurate.   The Bears’ offensive line probably had its best game against Washington State, and so did TB Isi Sofele, who has 839 rushing yards for the season.   WR Keenan Allen remains the big-play weapon, and Cal will try to get him the ball any way possible.

SCOUTING THE CAL DEFENSE: The Golden Bears’ defense had its best two games in its most recent two home games – against Utah on Oct. 22 and Washington State on Nov. 5.  The Bears defense has been outstanding in all but one of its home games this season, and a large part of that has been the play of its linebackers.    However, injuries could sideline OLB Chris McCain and OLB David Wilkerson this week, which would hurt.   The secondary played well against Washington State’s strong pass offense.  The Bears lead the Pac-12 in pass defense, partly because it applies a strong pass rush, and partly because its coverage has been good.  Cal’s defense has every chance to be successful against Oregon State, whose offense is not very good.

QUOTE:  “It was pretty awesome.  We’ve had some bad games this year where we haven’t done out job.  Obviously, if we’re not doing our job, we’re not going to get the run called.  We just don’t want to get too high or too low.  After the Utah win, we maybe got a little too high.” – Cal OT Mitchell Schwartz, after Call rolled up a season-high 288 rushing yards against Washington State.

THIS WEEK’S GAME: Oregon State at Cal (at AT&T Park in San Francisco), Nov. 12 – Cal is 5-4 overall and 2-4 in the Pac-12, while Oregon State is 2-7 overall,  2-4 in the Pac-12.  The teams are tied for fourth in the Pac-12 North, and Oregon State has won five of the past six games between the two teams.

SERIES HISTORY: Cal leads 33-30-0. Last meeting 2010 (35-7 Oregon State).

KEYS TO THE GAME: If Cal QB Zach Maynard does not throw any interceptions and TB Isi Sofele does not fumble, the Golden Bears have an excellent chance to win.  Sofele should be able to run the ball effectively against the Beavers’ suspect run defense, but his balI security has been an issue lately.  If the Bears’ defense plays the way it usually does at home, it should be able to control Oregon State’s offense, which is improving but still is not very potent.  The Beavers have virtually no running game, which should allow Cal to focus on Oregon State redshirt QB Sean Mannion, who is vulnerable to a pass rush and is prone to interceptions.  If the Bears can apply pressure, they could come up with some game-changing interceptions.

CAL PLAYERS TO WATCH:

— WR Keenan Allen – Allen is sixth nationally in receiving yardage and seventh in receptions, with 75.   Zach Maynard always looks to get the ball to Allen, his half-brother, and that’s not a bad idea.  Expect Cal to give the ball to Allen on an end-around at least once, and you could see Allen taking a direct snap.

— TB Isi Sofele – Sofele had a career-best 138 yards against Washington State, and he has shown a penchant for long runs lately.   He could break off a few big gainers against Oregon State, which does not have a very good run defense.

— CBs Steve Williams and Marc Anthony – Both played well against Washington State, and they will be responsible for controlling the Beavers’ two biggest offensive weapons – receivers James Rodgers and Markus Wheatley.

— TE Anthony Miller  — He has only 17 catches, but three are for touchdowns, and Zach Maynard  has been more prone to look for Miller lately.

ROSTER NOTES:

– OLB Chris McCain sustained a concussion in the Washington State game, and with the caution being taken with concussions these days, it seems unlikely he would play against Oregon State, although he has not been ruled out.

— OLB David Wilkerson injured his knee against Washington State and he is doubtful for the game against Oregon State and may be out longer than that.

— OT Brian Schwenke missed the Washington State game with an illness that landed him the hospital last week.   The exact nature of the illness was not disclosed but apparently it was more than just the flu.   He is back on campus and is practicing, but it’s uncertain whether he’ll be able to play against the Beavers.

— QB Zach Maynard took a blow to the head that put him out of the Washington State game, but that was more a precaution than anything else.  He is fine and will play against Oregon State.

Tara VanDerveer and Amy Tucker provided more food for thought than answers in the Cardinal women’s 100-54 victory over Vanguard in their second and final exhvition game Saturday night.

Two true freshmen — forward Taylor Greenfield and guard Amber Orrange — were in the starting lineup for this game, which does not necessarily mean they will be starters when the season begins officially with a key game against No. 24-ranked Texas in Austin.

The only certainty is that the Ogwumike sisters — Nneka and Chiney — will be the starting post players against the Longhorns.    The only other player who started both exhibitions was Lindy La Rocque, so it’s a pretty good guess she will be starting against Texas, especially after she hit 5 of 10 three-pointers against Vanguard.   She did not commit a turnover in either exhibition game, and the Cardinal need her outside threat.

The need for perimeter scorers is also a reason freshman Bonnie Samuelson may be a bigger factor this season than anticipated.  She made 5 of 10 three-pointers against Vanguard, suggesting her 5-for-7 shooting from beyond the arc in the first exhibition against UC San Diego was no fluke.    Whether she can do that against quicker, bigger Division I defenders is another question, but VanDerveer may be willing to give her significantly playing time early in the season to find out.

She is unlikely to be a starter, though.    It’s not even clear what alignment the Cardinal will use — whether it will use a three-guard set as it used in the first exhibition or a two-guard attack as it started in the second.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Orrange will become a starter at some point this season, and may be the Cardinal’s starting point guard against Texas.  She has not shot well, going 2-for-8 in the two exhibitions, including 0-for-4 Saturday, but more significant is that she had six assists without a turnover on Saturday, giving her 13 assists with just two turnovers in the two exhibitions.   Again, doing it against the likes of UC San Diego and Vanguard is a lot different from dishing off against the likes of Texas, but she provides the kind of quick, athletic playmaker the Cardinal has not had in recent years.  She could be a major boost for the Ogwumikes, who would benefit from someobdy who can drive and dish.

Junior Joslyn Tinkle did not started either exhibition, but got as much playing time as anyone, so she figures to play a lot, although whether it is as a starter or coming off the bench is unclear.  She can play both a small forward or post position, so VanDerveer may like the flexibility she provides off the bench.

Toni Kokenis did not play on Saturday, and she is likely to be a starter, so it’s hard to say who will be in the starting lineup.   Last season, VanDerveer used a variety of starting lineups in the exhibitions, and continued to tinker with it for the first month of the season before she settled on La Rocque as the fifth starter.   That was when only one starting spot was in question.   Now it’s three, and you may see several combinations early in the season.

Did we learn anything from Stanford’s 100-47 victory over Ryerson in its men’s exhibition basketball game on Saturday?

Not much, except that Johnny Dawkins has a lot of options for lineups, and may be juggling his starting five as the season moves along, much like he did last season.

It would be nice if the Cardinal could establish a rotation and stick with it, because that lends consistency and stability, but it remains to be seen whether that can happen.

It is becoming increasing clear that freshman Chasson Randle will be the team’s starting point guard, though.    He was in the starting lineup against Ryerson, and you don’t start a true freshman in an exhibition game unless you plan for him to be your starter when the games count.   He was just 3-for-7 from the field, but he had three assists and no turnovers.   And he proved his value during the team’s tour of Spain.

Perhaps more significant is that Aaron Bright, not Jarrett Mann, was the other starting guard.   Dawkins has said Bright might be the most improved player on the team, so we may see him in the starting lineup.  He provides the Cardinal with an outside threat that Mann does not.   It also gives Stanford two combo guards on the floor together, and there has been a trend of late to have two players on the floo at the same time who can run the offense.

Besides Randle, Josh Owens seems to be the only other player set as a starter, although it appears sophomore Dwight Powell is a good bet to be a starter.  He had 16 points and seven boards in the exhibition.

Sophomore Anthony Brown came off the bench in the exhibition, which is somewhat of a surprise, while Andrew Zimmermann was in the starting lineup.

Zimmermann is a complementary player, and if the Dawkins thinks he has enough scoring on the floor elsewhere, he may use Zimmermann for his hustle and defense.   However, as the season goes on, you may see Zimmermann phased out.

Brown was not a starter at the beginning of last season, but he was by season’s end, and the same thing could happen this year.  He was 5-for-6 from the field and made his only three-point attempt in the exhibition.   Even if he is not in the starting lineup, he figures to get starter minutes and probably will play more than Zimmermann.

Stanford’s 38-13 road victory over Oregon State on Nov. 5 probably didn’t impress the pollsters, and the head injury that put WR Chris Owusu in the hospital put a pall over the  Cardinal afterward and put Owusu’s football career in jeopardy.

But the result got the Cardinal to where it needs to be, which is undefeated headed into its big game against Oregon on Nov. 12 at Stanford.

The game against the Ducks will be the first game ever played at Stanford between two top-10 teams, and it will define the Cardinal’s 2011 season and will shape Andrew Luck’s Heisman status.

Concerns about the Cardinal’s secondary and defensive speed continued against the Beavers, who were very much in the game midway through the third quarter.    And those concerns will be a focal point against the speedy Ducks, who took advantage of their speed last season in the Ducks’ victory over Stanford and no doubt will try to do it again.

If the Cardinal beats Oregon, it will clinch a berth in the Pac-12 championship game, and that title game probably would be at Stanford.

But the Cardinal has loftier goals in mind, and a victory over the Ducks would keep Stanford very much in the national title picture.

Stanford QB Andrew Luck will need to play better than he did against Oregon State for the Cardinal to beat Oregon.   Luck threw a bad interception for the second week in a row, tossing a pick early in the game, and though he was 20-for-30 and threw three touchdown passes, he was not as sharp as usual.

Plus, he may not have his full complement of receivers available for the Oregon game.   Owusu was taken off the field on stretcher and taken to the hospital.  He sustained a concussion that presumably will prevent him from playing against the Ducks.

Levine Toilolo, one of the Cardinal’s three talented tight ends, also missed much of the game with a leg injury, and it’s unclear whether he’ll be available for the Oregon game.    Another important tight end, Zach Ertz, was already sidelined with a leg injury and he is not expected to play against the Ducks either.

That limits some of the offensive options for the Cardinal, which loves to have three tight ends in the game simultaneously for its power attack.

Oregon State QB Sean Mannion had some success against the Cardinal defense, completing 18 of 30 passes for 252 yards without an interception, and Stanford’s offense was not as dominant as it usually is, although the rainy weather in Corvallis, Ore., may have had something to do with it.

The Cardinal eventually took control of the game in the second half, but midway through the third quarter, Stanford led by just 17-13.  And a controversial call that interrupted the Beavers’ next drive was the turning point.

At that point, Luck and the Cardinal running game took over, and the Cardinal made it look like a rout.

NOTES

— WR Chris Owusu sustained at least his third concussion in 13 months when he took a blow to the head from Oregon State defensive back Jordan Poyer.   He was on the ground for an extended period, and was taken to the hospital in an ambulance.   With so many concussions in a relatively brief period, you have to wonder whether Owusu’s football career can continue.

Owusu is second on the team in receptions with 35 (one off the team lead) and second in receiving yardage with 376.  Drew Terrell or Ty Montgomery figures to replace Owusu as the starter if Owusu can’t play.

The reaction of some of the Oregon State fans angered Stanford LB Chase Thomas, who said, “They were yelling things that shouldn’t be said” when a player is injured.

– Two controversial penalties against Oregon State played a major part in taking Oregon State out of the game.   With Oregon State trailing 14-7 in the second quarter, Jordan Poyer laid a big hit on Stanford WR Chris Owusu that caused Owusu to fumble.  Poyer scooped up the ball and returned it for an apparent touchdown to tie the game.  However, Poyer was called for a personal foul on a helmet-to-helmet hit on Owusu, although replays left some doubt whether the call was appropriate.    Stanford kept possession and wound up with a field goal to get a 10-point lead.

In the third quarter, with Stanford leading 17-13, Sean Mannion completed a 30-yard pass to Brandin Cooks on a 3^rd-and-10 play that would have put the ball at the Stanford 36-yard line.  But WR Markus Wheaton was called for a holding penalty that, on second look, was a very debatable call.   Oregon State was forced to punt, and Stanford went on a long drive to take a 24-13 lead.

— Stanford has won its 17^th straight game, the longest winning streak in the country.   It is 9-0 for the first time since 1952.

— Stanford scored in all five trips to the red zone, including four touchdowns.  For the season, Stanford has scored on 51 of the 52 times it’s been to the red zone, and it has scored touchdowns on 41 of those red zone trips.  Its 98.1 percent scoring rate on red zone possessions leads the country.

—Stanford had scored in the first quarter in 28 straight games before being shut out in the opening period by Oregon State.  The Cardinal scored on the first play of the second quarter,  though.

KEEP AN EYE ON: WR Griff Whalen – Whalen has increased his production in recent games, and with WR Chris Owusu probably out for the Oregon game (and perhaps the season)  and the Cardinal tight ends banged up, Whalen will be critical against the Ducks.  Whalen had six receptions for 87 yards, and made a few difficult catches.  He had no more than 31 receiving yards in any of the first four games of the season, but has had more than 75 receiving yards in each of the last five contests.

LOOKING GOOD: Stanford running backs – The Cardinal rushed for 300 yards, yet no Cardinal player exceeded 100 yards.  That shows their depth at running back.  Six players rushed for at least 28 years.  Stepfan Taylor led the team with 95 yards (as well as two receptions), Tyler Gaffney had 56 yards, and Anthony Wilkerson got back in the rotation with 37 yards.  The Cardinal’s short-yardage man is fifth-year senior Jeremy Stewart, who had 47 yards and a touchdown.  The wild card is QB Andrew Luck, who seems to get his most important runs on third down, almost always converting it into a first down.

NOT LOOKING SO GOOD: The Cardinal secondary wasn’t bad against Oregon State, but it made Oregon State redshirt freshman QB Sean Mannion look pretty good.   Mannion completed 18 of 30 passes for 252 yards and a touchdown.   The Cardinal applied pretty good pressure on Mannion, sacking him three times and hurrying him on several other occasions.  But the Cardinal did not have any interceptions, even though Mannion had thrown 13 picks in the previous six games, and at least one in each of the those six contests.   The Cardinal has only three interceptions for the season, and teams have had success getting to the perimeter against Stanford in recent games.  That does not bode well for the game against Oregon.

QUOTE: “Every single road game you can credit our defense.  Every single road game we started slow on offense.  That’s just the way it’s been all year.” – Stanford coach David Shaw.

PLAYER NOTES

— QB Andrew Luck started the game 1-for-4 with an interception, but was 19-for-26 with three TDs and no picks after that.   He was not as sharp as usual, but produced two TD passes when they were needed in the second half to break the game open.

—WR Griff Whalen led the team in receiving yards with 87 on six catches.  He now leads the team in catches, with 36, and receiving yards, with 534.

—TE Coby Fleener had just two catches, but one was for a touchdown.  He now has eight touchdown catches for the season, even though he has just 20 receptions.   He also had a chance for another touchdown catch early in the game, but it slipped through his hands.

—TB Stepfan Taylor had 95 rushing yards, giving him 891 for the season, and he also had two catches, one of which was for a touchdown.  He has scored 10 touchdowns this season, including two on receptions.

— Erik Whitaker did the place-kicking for the Cardinal again with Jordan Williamson sidelined with an injury, and Whitaker has yet to miss a field goal.   He made a 31-yarder against Oregon State and is 3-for-3 or the season, although none was longer than 33 yards.

ROSTER NOTES:

— SS Delano Howell missed his third straight game when he sat out the Oregon State game with a hand injury, but there is a chance he could play against Oregon.

— WR Chris Owusu sustained a concussion in the first half and was taken to the hospital.  It’s uncertain whether he will play again this season.

—OT Cameron Fleming sat out the Oregon State game with a knee injury, and he is questionable for the Nov. 12 game against Oregon..

—K Jordan Williamson missed Oregon State game with a pulled muscle.   It was the second straight game he missed, and he is questionable for the Oregon game on Nov. 12.

— TE Zach Ertz missed the Oregon State game with a lower leg injury, and he is not expected to play in the Nov. 12 game against Oregon either.

— P David Green missed much of the Oct. 29 game against USC after receiving a blow to the head, but he played against Oregon State.

Cal successfully completed Step 1 of its four-game road to a bowl game by beating Utah on Oct. 22, but Step 2 may be more important, because the Oct. 29 game against UCLA is on the road.

The Golden Bears (4-3) appear to be better than UCLA, and based on Cal’s impressive 34-10 victory over Utah, the logical conclusion is that Cal will roll against a UCLA team that is reeling.

Not only did UCLA (3-4, 2-2) get hammered by a mediocre Arizona team 48-12 in its most recent game, Oct. 20, but it will have six players suspended for the Cal game for their part in a fight during that game.   Two starters – receiver Shaq Evans and defensive tackle Cassius Marsh – are among the players suspended.  Three other receivers who get playing time are also suspended, so the Bruins’ passing game, already weak, will be further hamstrung.

But there is one key factor:  The game is on the road, and Cal’s defense, as good as it’s been at home (including AT&T Park this season), the Golden Bears have not played well defensively on the road.

Cal should be able to score points on the Bruins, who have one of the worst defenses in the country, especially if QB Zach Maynard is as efficient as he was against Utah, when he rolled out more and was far more accurate.

But the Golden Bears defense must be able to handle the Bruins’ running game, led by Johnathan Franklin and Derrick Coleman.
Cal absolutely stoned Utah TB John White, so the Bears are certainly capable of doing the same to the Bruins, who rely heavily on the ground game.   But again, the issue is the venue , and the fact that the game is on the road, where the Cal defense has wilted ever since Clancy Pendergast became the defensive coordinator prior to last season.

If it can stop the run, Cal should be in good position, because quarterback Kevin Prince does not seem capable of winning  the game with his passing.  UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel hinted this week that his true freshman quarterback, Brett Hundley, would be ready if needed.  So if Prince struggles, the Bears may see Hundley, who was expected to redshirt this season but may be called into action.

Cal dominated UCLA 35-7 last season, but, again, that game was at home.

A win against UCLA would put Cal one win shy of a bowl berth, and put them in good shape for a sweep of this four-game stretch, which includes subsequent games against Washington State and Oregon State, both at home.

At 1-3 in the conference, Cal is not in position to assume victory in any Pac-12 game, but the season will get a lot easier if the Bears win this one.

NOTES

— Defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast may have a difficult decision to make regarding his starting cornerbacks.   After missing two games with a dislocated shoulder, Marc Anthony began practicing again this week and may be ready for the UCLA game.   Anthony started the first five games before his injury.  However, freshman Stefan McClure has played well in his absence, especially against USC WR Robert Woods.  Whether Anthony will regain his starting spot from McClure when he’s healthy is an open question.  Steve Williams is the other starting corner, and Anthony is unlikely to replace him as a starter.
— Cal is 2-6 in road games since the start of last season, its only wins being a 20-13 victory over last place Washington State last season, and an overtime victory over last-place Colorado this season.
Cal has yielded more than 30 points in six of those eight road games, but has yielded more than 30 points in only one of its 10 home games since the start of 2010.
— Keenan Allen still leads the nation in receiving yardage per game, despite having only 78 receiving yards against Utah.   It’s close, though.  Allen is averaging 129.4 yards per game, USC’s Robert Woods is at 128.9, and Oklahoma Ryan Broyles is averaging 128.4.
— Even though Cal is in the North Division of the Pac-12, and UCLA is in the South, the two teams will play each other every year, because of a concession to Cal when the conference was expanded and split into two divisions.  Cal plays neither Arizona nor Colorado in conference games this season, although it did play Colorado in an odd nonconference game.

SCOUTING CAL’S OFFENSE: Cal’s offense had perhaps its best game of the season against Utah on Oct. 22, considering the Utes have a pretty good defense.   The difference was QB Zach Maynard.   Rolling out far more often, Maynard completed 19 of 29 passes with no interceptions.    He was particularly accurate when he threw while on the move, so you can expect to see more of that.  You can also expect to see Maynard run the ball more often on planned running plays off the speed option.  TB Isi Sofele did not have a big game against Utah, but he had shown he is adequate for the Pac-12, and Keenan Allen and Marvin Jones are probably the best wide-receiver tandem in the conference, and one of the best in the country.

SCOUTING CAL’S DEFENSE: The Golden Bears had their best defensive game of the season against Utah, limiting the Utes to 178 total yards and holding TB John White to 39 rushing yards.   Most of the yardage by Utah and White and all of Utah’s points came in the fourth quarter when the outcome was decided.   Defensive linemen Andrew Guyton and Aaron Tipoti played well, and seem to be getting better, and freshman CB Stefan McClure had another solid game, as did the secondary in general.  The secondary has been – and continues to be – the weakest link in the defense.

QUOTE:  “The guy’s very accurate when he runs.” – UCLA coach Rick Neuheisel, on the ability of Cal QB Zach Maynard to throw while rolling out.

SATURDAY’S GAME: Cal at UCLA (at the Rose Bowl), Oct. 29 – Cal is 4-3 overall and 1-3 in the Pac-12 after a convincing 34-10 victory over Utah, and UCLA is 3-4 overall, 2-2 in the conference after getting blown out by Arizona 48-12 on Oct. 20.   Cal beat UCLA 35-7 last season.

SERIES HISTORY: UCLA leads 49-31-1. Last meeting 2010 (35-7 Cal).

KEYS TO THE GAME: If Cal can prevent UCLA backs Derrick Coleman and Johnathan Franklin from getting consistent gains, the Golden Bears should win.   Last season, Cal limited Franklin to 54 yards and Coleman to 1.  But that was at home where the Bears’ defense nearly always excels.  The Cal defense needs to break through that road barrier and produce a dominating game.  If it can stop the run, UCLA QB Kevin Prince does not seem capable of winning the game with his arm, and if true freshman UCLA QB Brett Hundley comes into the game, Cal must pressure him early and often.   Arizona stopped the Bruins’ running game cold, and UCLA’s offense seemed helpless.  Cal’s defensive scheme will be much the same as it was against Utah, which also had obvious flaws at the quarterback position.  Whether Cal’s improving linebacking corps can have a big game on the road will be the key.

CAL PLAYERS TO WATCH:
WR Keenan Allen – Allen leads the nation in receiving yardage, and his one-handed grab of a pass that was well behind him against Utah could help him get some national attention.
QB Zach Maynard – He had his best game of the season against Utah, but that was just one game.   Maynard needs to start stringing efficient games together if the Bears are to be a consistent winner.  Against UCLA’s mediocre defense, Maynard has every chance to be successful.
OLBs David Wilkerson and Michael McCain – The two freshmen have been getting better every game, and their playing time has increased as a result.  They are the virtual starters, and how they perform against UCLA will have a lot to do with the outcome.
Punter Bryan Anger – Anger played a role in preventing Utah from having good field position with his booming punts.  Keeping UCLA pinned in its own territory will limit what the Bruins can do.

ROSTER NOTES:
– CB Marc Anthony sustained a dislocated left shoulder in the Oct. 6 loss to Oregon and missed the USC and Utah games.  He has a little less than a 50-50 chance of playing in the game against UCLA
– TE Spencer Hagan is questionable for the game against UCLA with a thigh injury.
– K Giorgio Tavecchio is 11-for-13 on field goals this season, but just 21 of 25 on extra points.  All four of his missed extra points and one of his missed field goal were blocked.
— ILB Mychal Kendricks was not named one of the 12 semifinalists for the Butkus Award, which goes to the nation’s top linebacker.

Stanford began to prove its worthiness as a top 10 team with its 65-21 pounding of then-No. 25 Washington at Stanford, but the Cardinal can cement that status with a win on Oct. 29 against USC, which will pose a more difficult obstacle than Washington.
There are five reasons USC will be the Cardinal’s biggest challenge yet, considerably bigger than Washington.

— The Trojans are the highest ranked team the Cardinal has faced.   USC is No. 20 in the Associated Press poll, five spots higher than Washington was before it faced Stanford.  Quite simply, USC is more talented than Washington, and seems to be getting better based on its road win over Notre Dame on Oct. 22.

— USC can play defense; Washington can’t.  The Cardinal can’t expect to run up and down the field with the ease it did against the Huskies’ mediocre defense.  The Trojans have one of the best run defenses in the country, so the Cardinal may not be able to overpower the Trojans on the ground as it has all past opponents, including Washington.   Stanford QB Andrew Luck will have to throw the ball for Stanford to move the ball, and this game, which is on ABC in prime time, will either solidify or weaken Luck’s status as the Heisman Trophy front-runner.

— The game against USC is in Los Angeles, and it represents the toughest road game Stanford will play all season.  USC is 4-0 at home this season, and, like most teams, Stanford has not been as dominant on the road as it’s been at home this season.

— Stanford’s one apparent vulnerability is its pass defense, and USC is equipped to take advantage of that with QB Matt Barkley and WR Robert Woods.

— USC knows it has the goods to beat Stanford, because the Trojans had Stanford all but beaten on Stanford’s home field last season.   USC scored with 1:08 left to take a one-point lead, but the Cardinal kicked a field goal on the game’s final play to win it.

Stanford is a considered a national title contender now, and this is the kind of game it must win to show it deserves to be listed with LSU, Alabama, Oklahoma State and the like.

This is Stanford’s last difficult road game, with its toughest two remaining foes – Oregon and Notre Dame – both coming to Stanford.
If Stanford can get by USC, it will set the stage for its Nov. 12 showdown with Oregon at Stanford.   The Cardinal must play Oregon State on the road in the meantime, but if Stanford is good enough to take care of USC on the road, it’s hard to imagine the Beavers being a major obstacle.

NOTES
—- Stanford is No. 4 in both the AP and Harris polls, and No. 3 in the USA Today coaches poll heading into the game against USC.   Stanford has been ranked as high as No. 2 only once, the final week of the 1940 season in the AP poll.    Despite its high ranking in the USA Today and Harris polls (the two that count in the BCS formula), Stanford is only sixth in the BCS standings.  That’s because Stanford’s soft early-season schedule leaves then ranked only ninth in the BCS computers.

—- Two of three quarterbacks expected to be taken in the first round of the 2012 NFL draft are facing off in Stanford’s Andrew Luck and USC’s Matt Barkley (Oklahoma’s Landry Jones is the other quarterback expected to be taken early).
Barkley had a big game against Stanford last season, passing for 390 yards.  He had particularly success with swing passes to the perimeter or simple hitch passes to wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, enabling the USC receivers to use their speed to make big plays against the Cardinal secondary on the outside.

—– Robert Woods had 12 catches for 224 yards against the Cardinal last season.
“He’s a guy that can take over a game, and you don’t say that about a receiver,” Stanford coach David Shaw said.

— USC TB Dillon Baxter will not be part of the team against Stanford, as he focuses on academic issues.

— Stanford has won 15 straight games, the longest active streak in the country.  The Cardinal has won each of the last 10 games by 25 points or more, the nation’s longest such streak since 1936, according to ESPN.   The Cardinal does not have any experience with tight games in the fourth quarter this season, although Stanford did fine in that category against USC last season, when Andrew Luck drove the team from the Stanford 26 to the USC 13 in the final 1:08 to set up the game-winning field goall.

SERIES HISTORY: USC leads 59-27-3 (although the 2005 USC win was vacated by the NCA)).   Last meeting 2010 (37-35 Stanford).

SCOUTING THE OFFENSE: Stanford is second in the country in scoring (48.6 ppg) and third in total offense, and even though the opposition has not been as stiff as that faced by most top-25 teams, that’s an indication of how good the Cardinal offense is.   Andrew Luck is generally considered the best quarterback in the country, yet Stanford’s offensive identity is that off a physical, run-first team, an identity it strengthened with its school-record 446 rushing yards against Washington.   The Cardinal offensive line has been improving every game, and it is close to as good as the Cardinal’s line of a year ago.  Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney give the Cardinal two quality runners, and Levin Toilolo, Coby Fleener and Zach Ertz make up the best tight end trio in the country.

SCOUTING THE DEFENSE: The Cardinal’s defense has outstanding numbers against the run, ranking third nationally in run defense, and it’s been pretty good against the pass. It is against the pass the Cardinal is most vulnerable, although it did a good job against Washington QB Keith Price.   The Cardinal run defense was not as dominant against Washington, giving up two long touchdown runs to Huskies’ TB Chris Polk.    But even without its best all-around defender, ILB Syane Skov, who is out for the season with a knee injury, Stanford’s defense has been awfully good, ranking fourth in the country in scoring defense, yielding just 12.6 points a game.  If SS Delano Howell (hand) can’t play against USC, that will hurt the Cardinal against both the pass and the run.   OLB Chase Thomas is the team’s defensive star, with 10 tackles for losses, tied for the most in the Pac-12.

QUOTE: “Every single play we run has multiple options, and it’s up to Andrew (Luck) to get us in the right play with the defensive look we get.   I’d say he’s been about 98 to 99 percent in getting it right.” – Stanford coach David Shaw, on the presnap reads Luck must make.

THIS WEEK’S GAME: Stanford at USC, Saturday, Oct. 29, 5 p.m., ABC TV – Stanford is 7-0 overall, 5-0 in the Pac-12, while USC is 6-1, 3-1 in the conference. Stanford is in the North Division and USC in the South, but they cannot meet in the conference championship game, because USC is ineligible.  Stanford has won three of the last four games against USC, including the 2007 game in which Stanford pulled off one of the biggest upsets in history.

KEYS TO THE GAME: Stanford must prevent USC’s offense from marching up and down the field on quick passes to the perimeter as it did last season.  The Trojans were able to take advantage of their speed and athleticism in space by just dumping the ball quickly to the perimeter, and letting its players outrun or overpower Stanford’s defensive backs.   The Cardinal secondary will have to tackle better than it did against Washington last week.   Offensively, Stanford will have to prove it can match USC’s strength (run defense) with its strength (run offense).   Whichever team wins that battle up front should be the winner.

PLAYERS TO WATCH:
QB Andrew Luck – Luck dropped from third to fifth nationally in pass efficiency, but he is the front-runner on every credible Heisman poll being released.  He has thrown three interceptions this season, but two were on balls that were deflected.

TEs Coby Fleener, Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo – They had a quiet day by their standards, combining for just 3 receptions for 30 yards against Washington.   Nonetheless, it is these three, not the wide receivers, who represent the big-play threats in Stanford’s offense.

S Michael Thomas – He leads the team in tackles with 33, and has become a big-play defender with three tackles for losses and two interceptions.  He also has six passes defended (knocked down).  With Delano Howell out against Washington, Thomas was switched from free safety to strong safety and made the adjustment without a problem.   He may have to do that again, because Howell is questionable.

ROSTER NOTES:
– SS Delano Howell missed the Washington game with a hand injury, and he is questionable for the USC game on Oct. 29.
— ILB Shayne Sjov is out for the season with a knee injury.
—Former Stanford TB Cory Booker is now the mayor of Neward, N.J., and he gave the team a pep talk before the Washington game.
–QB Brett Nottingham leads the team in pass efficiency with a rating of 196.69, nearly 17 points better than Andrew Luck.   Nottingham is 4-for-7 with a touchdown pass.
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The Heisman Trophy competition should start any day now, but we’re still awaiting the green flag.  The qualifying times are in, and Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck has the pole position.  But that matters little at this point.

Three things matter:

No. 1: Team Ranking — The player’s team almost has to be ranked in the top five, and probably needs to be No. 1 or 2, when the ballots are cast.

No. 2: Late-season success in a high-exposure game – Voters have short memories. What they see the last few weeks in big games on TV is what sways voters.

No. 3: A “Did you see that?” moment – In the age of YouTube and round-the-clock SportsCenter, voters are awed and influenced by a single remarkable play they see again and again.

Opinions can change overnight.

Auburn’s Cam Newton went from fringe Heisman mention to front-runner after Auburn beat Arkansas 65-43 on Oct. 19.

Andrew Luck was not even in the Heisman discussion before two highlight-reel plays – neither of which involved his passing – vaulted him to contender status in 2010.  When Luck planted the devastating  hit on USC’s Shareece Wright after Wright picked up a fumble on Oct. 11, Luck entered the Heisman conversation.   When he bowled over Cal’s Sean Cattouse on his long run on Nov. 20, Luck rose to No. 2 in the Heisman totem pole, which is where he wound up.

In 2009, Mark Ingram went from local story to Heisman front-runner when he rushed for 246 yards in a 20-6 win over South Carolina that pushed Alabama to the No. 1 ranking.

Stanford’s Toby Gerhart was receiving no Heisman mention until he rushed for 233 yards in a Nov. 7 upset of No. 8 Oregon and 178 yards in the “What’s Your Deal?” thrashing of No. 11 USC on Nov. 14.   And it was his “Did you see that?” moment on a swing pass against Cal, when he bulled past four Bears tacklers in an otherwise pedestrian performance, that nearly won him the Heisman, finishing a close second to Ingram, whose No. 1 team ranking carried the day.

At the moment, Luck leads every Heisman poll, but his Heisman fate will be determined in the Nov. 12 game against Oregon.  Alabama’s Trent Richardson could become the leader if the Tide beats LSU on Nov. 5 and Richardson has a big day.   And there is someone out there not even being mentioned on October 24 who will be a contender in December.

Pity poor Kellen Moore.  The Boise State quarterback has been in the top five in every credible Heisman poll for about  1,000 weeks in a row now.  But because of his non-flashy style and Boise State’s lack of exposure at season’s end, it’s almost impossible for him to produce that “Did you see that?” moment.   He’ll get invited to New York again, but has little chance to win it.

Rematch in Nation Title Game?

No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama have not yet met for the first time, and already there is talk in the South that the two could meet again in the national championship game.   That will be discussed for the next two weeks as both have byes before their classic Nov. 5 game in Tuscaloosa, Ala.   The talk has some merit.  Stanford must face Oregon on Nov. 12.  Oklahoma State has Kansas State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma remaining.  It’s unfathomable Kansas State could go unbeaten.  Clemson has South Carolina and the poor ACC image to deal with.  And voters will have hard time ranking an unbeaten Boise State ahead of a once-beaten Alabama or LSU.