Jan 1st, 2010
Boy, that Sun Bowl on Thursday was a stunner – not that Oklahoma won 31-27, but that Stanford still had a chance to win on its final possession with three minutes left.
Jim Harbaugh's emotion is overt and persuasive -- Photo by Icon SMI
With virtually no passing threat without Andrew Luck and a secondary that did little to slow the Sooners’ passing game, Stanford was overmatched. The numbers suggested a mismatch: Oklahoma had more than twice as many first downs (27-13), nearly twice as many yards (480-261) and turned 11 third downs into first downs while the Cardinal was just 1-for-12 on third-down conversions.
Quarterback Tavita Pritchard, who played the entire game in place of Andrew Luck (broken right index finger), completed just 8 of 19 passes for 118 yards and threw two interceptions, and he was unable to beat a Sooner defense that loaded up to stop the run. With Luck, the Cardinal had the Pac-10 leader in passing efficiency (yes, ahead of Oregon State’s Sean Canfield, Oregon’s Jeremiah Masoli and Washington’s Jake Locker), and without him, the Cardinal had no passing game to speak of.
Yet, with 2:25 left, the Cardinal trailed by just four points when facing fourth-and-two from its own 28-yard line. The Cardinal’s chances ended with another Pritchard incompletion, the final example of a play that Luck might have made.
Stanford stayed in the game because it made a couple breaks (an interceptions and a blocked punt), because it received a break (a questionable officiating call that gave Stanford the ball on a muffed punt) and because running back Toby Gerhart showed he probably should have won the Heisman Trophy.
Gerhart had “only” 135 rushing yards, a little under his average, but he did it against an Oklahoma defense that is outstanding against the run and focused all its attention on stopping Gerhart. Injuries to Sooners defensive linemen certainly aided Gerhart, but he kept the Cardinal in the game almost by himself.
It will be interesting to see how the identity of Stanford’s offense changes without Gerhart next season.
Every indication is that Gerhart will give up his final season of college eligibility to turn pro, and although he is one of the few players Stanford will lose off its offense, his expected departure could be crippling. With him, Stanford had a punishing, ball-control offense that had enough of a passing threat with Luck to control the pace of nearly every game.
Without Gerhart, will coach Jim Harbaugh turn to Luck’s obvious skills and become a passing team? Or will Gerhart try to retain its punishing running approach with Stepfan Taylor, a talented freshman runner who nonetheless is not the same kind of power back that Gerhart is?
The focus next season presumably will shift from Gerhart to Luck, whose importance was underlined by his absence in the Sun Bowl. But can Luck be as effective without Gerhart’s running, which forced defenses to crowd the line of scrimmage and provide openings for Luck’s passes?
And will Harbaugh be willing to relinquish his ball-control attack knowing how weak Stanford’s pass defense is? The shortcomings of the Cardinal secondary were always evident, but by having its offense on the field for long stretches, Stanford minimized opponents’ opportunities to attack that vulnerable Cardinal secondary. Stanford’s defense was decent against the run and provided more than an adequate pass rush, but its defensive backs were unable to react effectively to the ball in the air. Improving the secondary will be the Cardinal’s No. 1 priority in the offseason.
The other big priority is keeping Harbaugh, whose name will no doubt surface again when NFL coaching vacancies arise. Harbaugh probably has not shown NFL teams enough to earn an NFL head coaching job yet, especially with the lack of NFL success of other college head coaches (Steve Spurrier, Nick Saban, Butch Davis, etc.).
Harbaugh should be at Stanford for at least another season, and the Cardinal needs Harbaugh. He led the Cardinal to an 8-5 season and probably did his best single-game coaching job on Thursday by keeping his overmatched team in contention in the Sun Bowl.
