If quarterbacks were eliminated from consideration and if the voting were held today, Stanford running back Toby Gerhart would have a chance to win the Heisman Trophy.

Those are two significant “ifs” – like saying I could win a Pulitzer Prize for literature if all professional writers were eliminated and the voting were open only to members of my family.

Toby Gerhart/AP Photo Paul Sakuma

1. The top quarterbacks — Colt McCoy, Tim Tebow, Tony Pike, Jacory Harris and Jimmy Clausen — would all have to stumble.   There’s a reason quarterbacks have won eight of the past nine Heisman Trophies: They are by far the most influential players in a team’s success, and their importance seems to increase with each passing season.  Gerhart is the top running back in ESPN.com’s Heisman poll this week, but that only ranks him seventh overall.

2. Stanford would have to finish 9-3 at the very worst and probably would need to be 10-2 or 11-1.   Heisman Trophies don’t go to players on losing teams — unless that team is Notre Dame  (Irish quarterback Paul Hornung won it in 1956 when Notre Dame went 2-8).  Each of the past 10 Heisman Trophy winners played on a team that finished the regular season ranked in the top 10, and all but one were in the top five.   Even with its 4-1 start, the chance of Stanford finishing in the top five is — to be kind — slim.

3. Gerhart would have to have a big game against USC.  The nation will be watching, and if Gerhart can do it against the Trojans, it will give Gerhart more credibility that rushing for 400 yards against a team like Washington State.   Being impressive against a top team in a televised game is a prerequisite.

4. Gerhart must have a big game against Notre Dame, for two reasons.  First of all, it’s Notre Dame, and that means people are paying attention.  Second, it’s the final regular-season game, and the final impression is the one that influences voters most.  USC quarterback Carson Palmer was not the Heisman leader heading into the final weekend in 2002, but after he carved up Notre Dame in one of the few nationally televised games of the day, he ended up winning in a landslide.

5. Gerhart needs to produce some highlight-film plays.   It’s amazing what one great play can do for a player’s reputation in today’s ESPN sports world.   Reggie Bush won the Heisman for his two amazing plays against Fresno State, and the replay reel is kind to Tim Tebow’s rugged style.  Gerhart is a power runner, not the kind of player that plays well on late-night highlights.  He would have to bowl over a series of defenders on a run of 40 or 50 yards to get the wow reaction needed.

6. Gerhart would need some numbers that could not be ignored.  That generally means something in the neighborhood of 1,800 rushing yards plus some receiving yards.  This is probably the least important of the six prerequisites for Gerhart’s Heisman quest., but it could be the deciding factor if the other things fall into place.

Add in the fact that West Coast players have a built-in disadvantage because many voters simply don’t see them and one must conclude it would be a major victory for Gerhart just to finish among the top five in voting, let alone win it.